NFL walk-forward Elo
NFL win probabilities from real completed games
NFLPredict ingests nflverse schedule/results, replays games chronologically, and publishes a static Elo + Glicko forecast. The current backtest covers 7,276 completed games from 1999–2026.
Brier
0.224
Accuracy
63.5%
Home edge
45 Elo
Upcoming
272
Next games
| Date | Away | Home | Home win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 W1 | NE | SEA | 63.9% |
| 2026-09-10 W1 | SF | LA (neutral) | 53.3% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | ARI | LAC | 74.5% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | ATL | PIT | 62.1% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | BAL | IND | 46.3% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | BUF | HOU | 52.6% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | CHI | CAR | 43.7% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | CLE | JAX | 70.1% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | DAL | NYG | 43.0% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | GB | MIN | 58.7% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | MIA | LV | 41.2% |
| 2026-09-13 W1 | NO | DET | 71.9% |
Top ratings
#1
SEA
Elo 1872 · 469 games
#2
DEN
Elo 1820 · 455 games
#3
BUF
Elo 1819 · 453 games
#4
PHI
Elo 1802 · 473 games
#5
LA
Elo 1801 · 181 games
#6
HOU
Elo 1799 · 405 games
#7
NE
Elo 1791 · 483 games
#8
DET
Elo 1776 · 445 games
Data: nflverse/nfldata games.csv. Ratings generated 2026-06-08T18:28:45.320Z. Probabilities are for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice.